After seven underdogs won outright last week, favorites are now just 51-68 against the spread this season. Now, NFL bettors will have to decide whether to trend will continue ahead of the Week 9 NFL schedule. There are only four games in the latest Week 9 NFL odds from William Hill that have NFL spreads of a field goal or less. Meanwhile, the Chiefs are favored by double-digits for the fourth time this season, this time by 10.5 over the Panthers.
The Chiefs have covered two of their three previous games as double-digit favorites, but also lost outright as 10.5-point favorites against the Raiders. Which Week 9 NFL Vegas odds should you target in your NFL bets? All of the Week 9 NFL lines are listed below, and SportsLine’s advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and predictions you need to make the best Week 9 NFL picks now.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up over $7,600 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception five-plus years ago.
It’s off to a strong 15-8 roll on top-rated NFL picks this season. The model enters Week 9 on an incredible 111-73 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. The model also ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch in three of the past four years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 95 percent of CBS Sports office pool players three times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Top NFL predictions for Week 9
One of the top Week 9 NFL predictions the model recommends: The Falcons cover comfortably as four-point home favorites against the Broncos. The Falcons began the season 0-5 and wound up firing Dan Quinn and appointing defensive coordinator Raheem Morris as the interim head coach. Morris has delivered two wins in his three games at the helm of the franchise.
The Falcons have been better on both sides of the ball since the change. Atlanta is averaging 29 points and 417 yards per game under Morris after averaging 24.4 points and 391.4 yards per game under Quinn. Meanwhile, Atlanta is giving up 21 points and 351.3 yards per game under Morris versus 32.2 points and 446 yards per game for Quinn.
The model predicts that Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan will throw for close to 300 yards and multiple scores, while wide receiver Julio Jones catches seven passes for nearly 100 yards. Meanwhile, the Falcons’ defense forces multiple turnovers as the team covers in well over 50 percent of simulations. The model is also leaning over 50 points scored.
Another one of the top Week 9 NFL predictions from the model: The Texans (-7) cover on the road against the Jacksonville Jaguars. After surprising the Colts in Week 1, this season has been a struggle for Jacksonville. The Jags have dropped six straight games, with the last three losses all coming by at least 10 points. They’re 0-3 against the spread during that span as well.
Now, Jacksonville will be without quarterback Gardner Minshew (thumb) and will turn to rookie sixth-round pick Jake Luton, who has never thrown an NFL pass. Combine that with a defense that is giving up the 31st-most points in the league (31.4) and the Jags could really struggle, even against another 1-6 squad like Houston.
The model says Luton throws for just over 200 yards and an interception, while Houston quarterback Deshaun Watson accounts for almost 350 yards and three scores as the Texans cover in more than 50 percent of simulations. The under (50.5) also has value since that hits almost 60 percent of the time.
How to make Week 9 NFL picks
The model also has made the call on every other game on the Week 9 NFL schedule. It’s also identified a Super Bowl contender that goes down hard. You can only get every pick for every game here.
What NFL picks can you make with confidence in Week 9? And which Super Bowl contender goes down hard? Check out the latest NFL odds from William Hill below and then visit SportsLine to see which NFL teams are covering in more than 50 percent of simulations, all from the model that is up over $7,600 on its top-rated NFL picks.
NFL odds, matchups for Week 9
Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts (-1, 48)
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (+7, 50.5)
New York Giants at Washington Football Team (-2.5, 43)
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4.5, 50.5)