NFL Week 12 betting nuggets – ESPN

Underdogs went 8-6 against the spread in Week 11 and are now 87-70-1 ATS this season. Road teams still have an edge despite a 5-9 ATS mark last week and are 82-78-1 ATS overall.

Six games went over and overs are now 85-74 on the season (the Raiders, Titans and Bills have the best over mark at 8-2; the Rams, Bears and Cardinals are all 7-3 to the under). The Steelers are the best team against the spread at 8-2, followed by the Raiders, Giants and Dolphins, all at 7-3. The Cowboys are the worst against the spread at 2-8, followed by the Texans, Jets and Eagles at 3-7.

Here are the top things to know for each game in Week 12.

Odds listed are from Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill and subject to change.


Thursday’s games

Houston Texans (-2.5) at Detroit Lions, Thursday at 12:30 p.m. ET

• Houston is 2-7-1 ATS as a favorite since the start of last season, while Detroit is 3-7 ATS in its past 10 games as an underdog.

• Detroit is 6-2 ATS in its last eight Thanksgiving games (covered last season). However, the last 12 times Detroit has been a home underdog on Thanksgiving, it lost outright, going 2-10 ATS. One of the two covers came last season.

Deshaun Watson is 3-7 ATS as a starter this season, tied with Carson Wentz for the worst ATS record this season among quarterbacks with 10 starts.

Washington Football Team at Dallas Cowboys (-3), Thursday at 4:30 p.m. ET

• Dallas is 2-8 ATS this season, the worst cover percentage in the NFL. Dallas is also 1-4 ATS at home this season.

• Dallas is 1-8 ATS in its last nine Thanksgiving games.

• The under is 4-1 in Dallas games since Dak Prescott‘s injury (last week went over).

• Eight of the last 10 meetings went over the total, though their Week 7 meeting finished 25-0 Washington with a total of 44.

Alex Smith is 8-4 ATS as Washington’s starting quarterback (1-1 this season). Since acquiring Smith in 2018, Washington is 5-8-1 ATS with all other quarterbacks.

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5), Thursday at 8:20 p.m. ET

• Pittsburgh is 8-2 ATS this season, the best mark in the NFL.

• This is the first time Baltimore has been an underdog since Week 9 of last season. Baltimore had been the only team in the league not to be an underdog this season. Lamar Jackson is 5-1 ATS and 4-2 outright as an underdog. Baltimore was also a pick ’em in Week 9 this year against Indianapolis, winning 24-10.

• Baltimore is 9-4 ATS in November or later since the start of last season.

• Since the start of the 2017 season, Baltimore is 7-3-1 ATS vs Pittsburgh (0-1-1 ATS in Jackson starts).

• Home favorites are 2-6 ATS on Thursday night games this season.

Sunday’s games

Las Vegas Raiders (-1) at Atlanta Falcons, Sunday at 1 p.m. ET

• The over is 8-2 in Las Vegas games this season.

• Las Vegas has covered six of its past seven road games (4-1 ATS this season).

• Atlanta is 1-4 ATS at home this season, but this is the first time Atlanta is a home underdog. Matt Ryan is 12-5 ATS in his career as a home underdog.

• Atlanta is 0-4 ATS against teams with winning records this season.

Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills (-5.5), Sunday at 1 p.m. ET

• Seven straight Chargers games have gone over the total. The over is 7-2 in Justin Herbert starts.

• The over is 8-2 in Buffalo games this season, tied for the highest mark in the league.

• Los Angeles has failed to cover four straight games. However, Herbert is 3-0 ATS as an underdog of at least five points.

• Los Angeles is 46-21-5 ATS as a road underdog since 2004, including 9-4-2 ATS under Anthony Lynn.

New York Giants (-4.5) at Cincinnati Bengals, Sunday at 1 p.m. ET

• New York has covered four straight games and six of its past seven overall.

• New York has covered eight straight road games, including all five road games under Joe Judge this season. The Jets are 17-3 ATS in their past 20 road games, though they were favored in only three of those games.

• New York has not been a road favorite of at least four points since Week 12 of 2016 at Cleveland.

• This is the first time a team with a winning percentage of .333 or worse has been favored by more than a field goal in Week 10 or later since 2012 when Detroit (4-9) lost outright as a 6-point favorite at Arizona. Since 1990, teams with a .333 win pct or worse are 3-7 outright as road favorites of at least 3.5 points.

• Cincinnati is 5-1 ATS in games coming off a loss this season.

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-4), Sunday at 1 p.m. ET

• When Ryan Tannehill starts regular-season games for Tennessee, overs are 17-3, including 8-2 this season.

• Including last week’s win over Baltimore, Tennessee is 7-1 ATS and 6-2 outright as an underdog of at least four points under Mike Vrabel. Including the playoffs, Tennessee is 9-1 ATS and 7-3 outright in that spot.

• Indianapolis is 4-1 outright and ATS against Tennessee since Frank Reich and Mike Vrabel became their coaches in 2018. Since 2013, Indianapolis is 11-4 ATS against Tennessee.

• These teams also met in Week 10, with Indianapolis winning and covering. Since 2000, when teams meet two weeks after their first matchup, the team that won the first meeting is 7-17-1 ATS in the rematch.

• Indianapolis is 6-1 ATS in its past seven games as a favorite.

Carolina Panthers at Minnesota Vikings (-4.5), Sunday at 1 p.m. ET

Teddy Bridgewater is 33-12 ATS in his career including playoffs, though he failed to cover in his last start in Week 10. Bridgewater has failed to cover back-to-back games only twice in his career (never three straight).

• Bridgewater is 21-5 ATS as an underdog, the best cover percentage as an underdog in the Super Bowl era (minimum 10 games as underdog). Overall, Carolina has covered six of the past seven times it has been an underdog this season (including last week’s win with P.J. Walker starting).

• All five Minnesota home games have gone over the total this season.

• Minnesota is 1-3 ATS as a home favorite this season after going 26-11-1 ATS as a home favorite in Mike Zimmer’s first six seasons.

Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) at New England Patriots, Sunday at 1 p.m. ET

• New England is 50-25-1 ATS as an underdog under Bill Belichick. Belichick is 13-3 ATS as a home underdog and 11-5 outright, including 10-1 ATS and 9-2 outright in the Pats’ past 11 games.

• This is the second time in the past six seasons New England has been a home underdog; The Patriots upset Baltimore outright as a 7-point underdog in Week 10 this season.

• Three of Arizona’s past four games have gone over the total after the first six games went under.

• Arizona is 5-2 ATS in games starting at 1 p.m. ET in the Kliff Kingsbury/Kyler Murray era. Arizona had been 2-13 ATS in 1 p.m. ET games in the previous four seasons.

• Arizona is 2-5 ATS and 3-4 outright as a favorite in the Kingsbury/Murray era.

Miami Dolphins (-7) at New York Jets, Sunday at 1 p.m. ET

• Miami has covered five of its past six games and is 16-6 ATS since its Week 5 bye last season, the best mark in the league.

• The past two times the Dolphins have been a road favorite (last week at Denver and 2017 Week 3 vs. the Jets), they lost the game outright. Miami has not been a road favorite of at least 7 points on the road since Week 13 of 2014 (did not cover as 7-point road favorites at the Giants).

• New York is 10-16 ATS under Adam Gase, including 3-7 ATS this season.

Cleveland Browns (-7) at Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday at 1 p.m. ET

• If the Browns are favored by at least 7 points, it will be the largest road favorite spread for them since Week 3 of 1995 when Belichick’s Cleveland squad covered as an 8-point favorite over the Houston Oilers. It’s the team’s largest road favorite spot since Cleveland returned to the league in 1999.

Baker Mayfield is 1-5 ATS in his career as a road favorite (2-4 SU), and he is 7-11-1 ATS in his career as a favorite overall.

• Cleveland is 1-5 ATS in its past six games in the month of November or later.

• Cleveland has failed to cover in four of its past five games.

New Orleans Saints (-6) at Denver Broncos, Sunday at 4:05 p.m. ET

• New Orleans will be without Drew Brees again on Sunday. Since the start of last season, New Orleans is 6-0 ATS and SU without Brees (Bridgewater and Taysom Hill started), despite being an underdog in four of the six games.

• Quarterbacks within the first two starts of their career are 29-10 ATS since the start of last season.

• Denver is 13-8 ATS under Vic Fangio (6-3 ATS as home underdog).

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (-7), Sunday at 4:05 p.m. ET

• The Rams had six straight games go under the total until Monday’s win over the Bucs.

• Los Angeles is 14-7-1 ATS as a favorite of at least six points under Sean McVay.

• Since the start of last season, San Francisco is 9-4 ATS on the road and 6-2 ATS as a road underdog.

• San Francisco is coming off a bye while Los Angeles is coming off a Monday night game. Since 2017, teams coming off a bye are 2-9 ATS against teams coming off a Monday game, including Dallas upsetting Minnesota off a bye last week.

Kansas City Chiefs (-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET

Tom Brady is 10-1 ATS and 9-2 outright as a home underdog in his career. He has been a home underdog four times in the past 15 seasons (all since 2013) and has won all four games outright, with the past three wins all being by at least 20 points. Overall, Brady is 34-14-1 ATS and 30-19 SU in his career as an underdog (1-1 ATS and SU this season).

• Kansas City is 22-11 ATS as a road favorite since the start of the 2013 season.

Patrick Mahomes is 19-8 ATS as a starter since the start of last season, the best cover percentage among starters with 10 starts over span. Overall, Mahomes is 26-14-1 ATS in his career.

• Brady is 15-8 ATS following Monday Night Football games in his career.

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-7.5), Sunday at 8:20 p.m. ET

Aaron Rodgers is 18-5 outright and 16-7 ATS against Chicago in his career.

• Green Bay is 5-0 ATS after a loss under Matt LaFleur.

• The Packers are 1-3 ATS when favored by 7 or more under LaFleur.

• Chicago has lost and failed to cover six straight games after its bye week.

Monday’s game

Seattle Seahawks (-5.5) at Philadelphia Eagles, Monday at 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN

Russell Wilson is 23-12-2 ATS in his career in prime-time games (28-8-1 SU).

• Philadelphia is 7-2 SU and ATS as a home underdog in prime time games under Doug Pederson.

• Philadelphia is 1-7 ATS in its past eight games coming off a loss.

Carson Wentz is 3-7 ATS as a starter this season, tied with Deshaun Watson for the worst ATS record this season among quarterbacks with 10 starts.

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