Can you trust Kentucky basketball? Plus the Patrick Mahomes prop to go UNDER on – CBS Sports

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Happy Wednesday! You’re now officially halfway through the week, which means you’re that much closer to the start of Super Bowl LV. Did you know that this year’s Super Bowl is on CBS? It is, and that’s great because CBS Sports is the best (and we’re letting you stream for free on any device!). It’s also great because it hopefully means I’m going to get some free Super Bowl swag, and if there’s anything you should know about me, it’s that I enjoy getting free stuff.

It can be something I don’t need, nor even knew existed. If it’s free, and it’s sent to me, I’m all about it. For instance, as a sports writer, I’m often on the receiving end of emails from book agents letting me know about new sports-related books that are coming out, asking me if I want an advanced copy. It doesn’t matter what the book is about; I want it. There’s a good chance I won’t even read it, but I want that book.

In my Chicago neighborhood, we have these “little libraries” that are like birdhouses filled with books. You can leave a book, or take a book. Well, the little libraries in my neighborhood are filled with advanced copies of books I never read, but somebody is reading them! I know this because when I check later, they’re gone.

So, yeah, I like free stuff. Even the stuff I don’t want. Like this newsletter. Or these stories for you to read.

Since I know you like free stuff too, here are some picks I made just for you!

All times Eastern, and all odds via William Hill Sportsbook


🔥 The Hot Ticket

USATSI

Kentucky at No. 18 Missouri, 7 p.m. | TV: ESPN2
The Pick: Missouri -4.5 (-110)
: In our college basketball picks on Tuesday — both of which won, no big deal — I explained that part of my reasoning was that the teams we were betting against were coming off canceled games. One of those teams was Texas, which was scheduled to play Kentucky over the weekend, but the game was called off because of COVID issues with the Wildcats. Well, here’s that Kentucky team, going on the road against a good Mizzou team. It hasn’t played a game since last Tuesday, and it’s been dealing with COVID.

Oh, and it wasn’t exactly good before all of that.

While more advanced metrics suggest that Kentucky is a lot better than its 5-10 record, that’s thanks to its defense, which has been excellent. But this team cannot score. The Wildcats rank 313th in the nation in effective FG% (45.7%), 274th from two (46.6%) and 312th from three (29.0%). Mizzou isn’t an explosive offense, but it’s efficient enough, and it’s sound defensively as well. Considering the layoff, COVID, and Kentucky’s inability to shoot, the Tigers are an obvious play.

Key Trend: The home team has covered in eight straight in this series.

Here’s what SportsLine is saying about tonight’s college basketball slate: The Advanced Computer Model doesn’t feel great about anything in the Mizzou/Kentucky game, but it has a strong lean in one of tonight’s other SEC matchups.


💰 The Picks

USATSI

🏀 College Basketball

UCF at Memphis, 8 p.m. | TV: ESPN+
The Pick: UCF +11 (-110) — 
It’s been a while since I made you bet on a bad college basketball team, but we’re back on our BS. This is one of the best times to do it with because the Memphis team the Knights are playing tonight aren’t exactly juggernauts themselves. Also, these two just played on Monday. Memphis killed UCF 96-69 while shooting 53.7% from the field and 48.1% from three. Memphis was a 9-point favorite in that game, and now it’s suddenly an 11-point favorite. We’re buying back on that line movement, and banking on regression in Memphis’ shooting.

Key Trend: UCF has covered four straight times following a loss of 20 points or more. I mean, how can you not trust that trend?

Latest Odds: UCF Knights +11

🏈 Today’s Super Bowl LV pick

Chiefs vs. Buccaneers, Sunday, 6:30 p.m. | TV: CBS
The Pick: Patrick Mahomes Under 21.5 rushing yards (+115) — 
I’m taking this for the same reason I took the under on Mahomes’ rushing total in the AFC Championship: his toe. Leading up to the game this week, Mahomes has said that his turf toe is “close to 100 percent,” but I don’t believe him. It typically takes around three weeks to recover from turf toe when you’re resting the injury, and Mahomes has not been resting the injury. He played through it in the AFC Championship, and it clearly hindered his ability and desire to run with the ball.

I don’t think a week off will heal the toe completely, and I’m expecting Mahomes to be a bit limited in his mobility for the Super Bowl as well, so I see value on this total.

Key Trend: Mahomes has rushed for only 19 yards total in Kansas City’s two playoff games this season.

🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: The SportsLine Projection Model, which has returned almost $7,900 on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, reveals the best parlay picks for Super Bowl LV.


💸 The DFS Rundown

Star Plays

PG: Chris Paul, Suns
SG: Bradley Beal, Wizards
SF: Jaylen Brown, Celtics
PF: Jayson Tatum, Celtics
C: Joel Embiid, Sixers

Value Plays

PG: Theo Maledon, Thunder
SG: Hamidou Diallo, Thunder
SF: Eric Gordon, Rockets
PF: Tristan Thompson, Celtics
C: Cody Zeller, Hornets

Full lineup advice

Get winning NBA DFS picks from SportsLine pros Mike McClure and Jacob Gibbs. McClure has won almost $2 million in daily Fantasy, while Gibbs crushed the NBA last season, cashing around 65 percent of the time in cash games and nearly 45 percent of the time in tournaments. See their DraftKings advice and FanDuel lineups here


 ⛳ Waste Management Phoenix Open Top 20s

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We’re betting on each of these golfers to finish in the top 20 this weekend.

  • Harris English +110
  • Sungjae Im +138
  • Corey Conners +225
  • Brian Harman +300
  • Brendon Todd +400
  • Charley Hoffman +550
  • Nick Taylor +650
  • Tom Hoge +700
  • Stewart Cink +700
  • Mark Hubbard +750

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